The New Orleans Saints enter their bye week on a two-game winning streak under interim head coach Darren Rizzi. They currently sit at 4-7, two games back of the Atlanta Falcons who lead the NFC South with a record of 6-5 after losing their last two games. The Saints are far from mathematically eliminated, but how does their schedule play out when compared to the Falcons? And could the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 4-6 also go on their own run and steal the division?
The Saints remaining schedule looks like this:
vs. Los Angeles Rams
@ New York Giants
vs. Washington Commanders
@ Green Bay Packers
vs. Las Vegas Raiders
@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
ESPN’s analytics currently give the Saints a greater than 50% chance to win in three of their remaining games (Rams, Giants, and Raiders), and each team they have remaining is far from unbeatable if the Saints play like they have the last two weeks. They will have to win out just to get to 10 wins which may be enough to take the division title, but it will be close.
The Falcons remaining schedule looks like this:
vs. Los Angeles Chargers
@ Minnesota Vikings
@ Las Vegas Raiders
vs. New York Giants
@ Washington Commanders
vs. Carolina Panthers
ESPN’s analytics also give the Falcons a greater than 50% chance to win in three of their six remaining games. They share three opponents with the Saints (Raiders, Giants, and Commanders), but their next two games are against two teams arguably better than anyone the Saints have left on their schedule in the 7-3 Chargers and the 8-2 Vikings. The issue is that the Falcons have already clinched the tiebreaker over the Saints. Even though they split the season series, the next tiebreaker is record within the division, and the Falcons already have four wins against NFC South opponents, while the most possible for the Saints is three.
The Saints might find themselves tied for the division lead in three weeks, but it may not last
Photo by Derick E. Hingle/Getty Images
It is very possible that at the end of Week 14 the Saints are tied for the division lead. The problem is even then they would not be in a playoff spot, and after that their schedule gets harder while the Falcons’ gets easier. Even if the Falcons do what they are expected to do and win three of their final six games, that still puts them at 9-8 with the tiebreaker, a mark the Saints will have to win out and get to 10-7 to beat.
The Buccaneers on the other hand, despite being 4-6, have a very good chance to steal the division. They have five games remaining against teams with three or fewer wins, with just one game (at the Chargers) giving them a less than 50% chance to win. If the Saints, Bucs and Falcons all do what is expected the Buccaneers will win the division at 10-7 while the Falcons finish 9-8 and the Saints finish 7-10.
The Saints only real chance to win the division is to win the remainder of their games and get to 10 wins. If they do this, they will only need the Falcons to not pull any upsets over the Chargers, Vikings, and Commanders (or get upset themselves by the Raiders, Giants, or Panthers), and hope the Bucs drop one of their six games prior to their Week 18 matchup to win the division.
If they do not do this however, and finish with at most nine wins, they are going to need a lot of help to make the playoffs. They will not have the tiebreaker over the Buccaneers either, even if they beat them in Week 18. Assuming the Bucs win their two games against the Panthers and lose to the Saints (giving both teams three division wins), they will need to go to the third tiebreaker of record against common opponents to break the tie, and even if the Bucs lose to the Saints and both teams finish 9-8, the Bucs record against common opponents will be 7-5 against the Saints 6-6. If the Saints do not win out and finish with nine wins it is basically going to be up to the Panthers, Giants, and Raiders to get at least one win against each of Falcons and Bucs. If they drop two of their next six games, we can go ahead and start talking about the Draft.
The Saints are getting somewhat healthy and are back to playing good football, but finishing the year on an eight-game win streak directly following a seven-game losing streak would arguably be the best single season turnaround in NFL history, and even that would not guarantee them a division title. In short, we have a long, but certainly not impossible road ahead of us.
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