Adam Wells October 31, 2024
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In the aftermath of a disappointing end to their 2024 season, the focus for the New York Yankees now shifts to hoping they can keep Juan Soto as he prepares to hit free agency for the first time in his career.
Following their 7-6 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 5 of the World Series, Aaron Judge said the Yankees were “lucky” to have Soto this year and experssed hope they can keep him going forward.
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Aaron Judge was asked if he’s thought about tonight possibly being Juan Soto’s last game as a Yankee:
“We were definitely lucky to have him here and it would be great to keep playing with him because he’s definitely a special player.” pic.twitter.com/hrXXf5nK7h
There is no reason the Yankees can’t keep Soto, but there are questions of whether or not ownership will want to take that financial leap. Spotrac estimates they already have $249.5 million in salary commitments for next season when including arbitration projections.
MLB’s competitive balance tax for 2025 is set at $241 million. If Soto’s deal ends up being close to $50 million in annual value, the Yankees would be paying close to $300 million before factoring in penalties for being over the CBT for the fourth straight year.
Yankees managing general partner Hal Steinbrenner told reporters in May that the team’s current payroll was “simply not sustainable for us financially” because of the tax penalties they had to pay.
Steinbrenner did make those comments long before the Yankees made a run to the World Series for the first time since 2009, but he’s also been far more financially conservative with payroll than his father, George, since taking over day-to-day operations of the club in November 2008.
Everyone expected Soto would do well for the Yankees when he was acquired from the San Diego Padres in December 2023, but he managed to exceed a lot of the hype. The four-time All-Star hit .288/.419/.569 with a career-high 41 homers in 157 games during the regular season.
Soto added to his Yankees lore with a fantastic postseason performance. He hit .327/.469/.633 in 14 games and became a New York icon with his go-ahead home run in the 10th inning of Game 5 of the ALCS against the Cleveland Guardians that sent the Yankees to the World Series.
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May we once again re-introduce, The Generational, Juan Soto. pic.twitter.com/6R5fWpEg6I
Of course, Soto’s high level of production combined with being just 26 years old means he is going to cash in with a huge contract this offseason.
Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and Fox Sports recently said on Foul Territory that Soto’s average annual salary on his next deal is “going to start with a five.”
Foul Territory @FoulTerritoryTV
“Soto’s AAV (average annual value) is going to start with a five” 💰@Ken_Rosenthal weighs in on the future contract of Juan Soto, who turns 26 on Friday – which is also Game 1 of the World Series 🎂 pic.twitter.com/G011FWWMMb
Per The Athletic’s Jim Bowden, executives around MLB anticipate Soto’s deal will land somewhere between $550 million and $650 million in total value.
Shohei Ohtani is currently the only player with an average annual salary of at least $45 million and total value contract worth more than $430 million.
The pairing of Soto and Judge was the most productive duo in MLB. Their combined 20.3 FanGraphs’ wins above replacement was the highest by any teammates in 2024.
It would seem foolish to break them up at this point after the season both of them had, but the Yankees are going to have to fight if they want to keep Soto in 2025 and beyond.
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